Flutter reliability analysis of suspension bridges

A reliability analysis method is proposed in this paper through a combination of the advantages of the response surface method (RSM), finite element method (FEM), first-order reliability method (FORM) and the importance sampling updating method. The method is especially applicable for the reliability evaluation of complex structures of which the limit state surfaces are not known explicitly. After the accuracy and efficiency of the method are demonstrated through numerical examples, the method is used to estimate the flutter reliability of a suspension bridge. The uncertainties such as material properties, geometric parameters, structural damping ratio, flutter derivatives and extreme wind velocity at the bridge site are considered. The example suspension bridge is the Jiang Yin Bridge with a main span length of 1385 m built in China. The results show that the proposed method based on an empirical formula in which the limit state function is explicitly represented as a function of variables overestimates the flutter reliability of suspension bridges. The actual flutter reliability should be more accurately analyzed using the proposed method based on the deterministic finite element method in which the limit state function is implicitly represented as a function of variables. Finally, the most influential random variables on flutter reliability of suspension bridges are identified by using a sensitivity analysis.     

改进的微分等价递归算法

微分等价递归算法计算简单,在体系可靠度计算中有着广泛的应用。但是传统的微分等价递归算法精度低,并且利用数值差分来求解等价失效模式,计算量大。本文推出了等价线性失效模式的解析表达式,提高了等价模式的精度,并大大降低了计算量;在此基础上,分析了传统微分等价递归算法利用等价线性失效模式代替两个失效模式交集产生误差的原因,提出了改进的微分等价递归算法,从而大幅度地提高了计算精度,为微分等价递归算法在实际工程中的应用奠定了良好基础。     

某边坡稳定概率分析研究

岩土参数具有明显的随机性和变异性,传统安全系数评价方法把各种设计条件、各种指标和参数都定值化,并选用一定的计算模式来进行计算,得到的分析结果与实际不能完全吻合。本文采用目前相对精确的验算点法对某边进行稳定概率分析,并与安全系数作比较。     

可持续发展的工程质量观

根据科学与社会发展遇到的环境、资源、能源等问题提出可持续发展的工程质量观,并通过工程质量监管体系来实施。同时,用工程质量连线图的方法,结合实践,集思广义,不断修改完善工程质量监管体系,与时俱进。     

广州科学城岩质边坡稳定性可靠度分析

边坡稳定性问题是边坡工程最关键的问题,如何研究其稳定性也是岩土工程的重点研究课题。把Monte Carlo法引入边坡稳定性分析和评价中,借助传统的极限平衡理论,建立边坡稳定性分析的极限状态函数。运算过程中采用伪随机数的方法生成服从正态分布的抗剪强度参数随机变量,进而求出边坡安全系数、安全系数的可靠度指标和失效概率。与传统的极限平衡方法相比,可靠性分析可以直观地反映边坡稳定的可靠程度及其失效概率,能为边坡工程支护设计提供更为可靠的参数,同时也能为生产提供指导作用。因此,可靠度分析方法是边坡稳定性评价的有效方法,具有广泛的应用前景。     

考虑地震环境的设计常遇地震和罕遇地震的确定

本文在地震危险性特征分区图的基础上,通过对全国不同地震危险性特征区内的1905个城镇的危险性特征的分析,探讨了考虑地震环境的设计常遇地震和罕遇地震烈度、地震影响系数和地面最大加速度的合理取值,指出在抗震设计中考虑不同地区地震危险性差异的必要性,为更好地贯彻“小震不坏,中震可修,大震不倒”的抗震设计目标提供了新的依据。     

断续节理岩体动态疲劳损伤研究

分析了断续节理岩体动态疲劳损伤的复杂性,阐明了疲劳损伤研究的近似处理方法。基于剩余应变强度理论和线性退化准则讨论了断续节理岩体动态疲劳损伤累积过程。研究了岩体破裂概率与疲劳损伤的等效性,建立了疲劳损伤变量与分形维数间的定量关系。最后通过动态疲劳实验验证了结论的正确性。     

西藏江雄水库左坝肩山体稳定可靠性分析

通过运用概率评价中的Rosenblueth方法和定值法中的简布法相结合，对西藏江雄水库左坝肩山体蓄水前后的稳定性进行评价，得出失稳的可能性比较大，山体的加固处理是非常必要的结论。实践表明，该方法对西藏异常多变的高原气候下的边坡稳定性评价有重要的意义。     

Probability distribution characteristics and estimation method of prestress of concrete structures based on Gaussian mixture model

为解决预应力混凝土框架结构预应力筋数量众多、有效应力不确定性强且分布不均匀、抽样检测评估无法准确表征结构有效应力整体特征等结构评价难题，引入高斯混合模型研究结构有效应力概率分布特征，并据此提出了一种概率估计方法。该方法通过MonteCarlo模拟建立预应力筋集有效应力的高斯混合模型；通过中心化、去除离散点等方式修正模型以增强其高斯特性；基于模型高斯显著性检验准则确定正态分布近似估计范围，并以此为总体样本进行抽样检测，进而估计预应力筋集实时有效应力的概率分布；以某无黏结预应力混凝土框架结构为工程实例验证了该方法有效性。研究结果表明：既有结构预应力筋集有效应力概率分布由多个均值与方差相近的子分布组成，可采用近似正态的高斯混合模型统一表征；由设计差异导致的有效应力分布不均匀性可采用中心化的数学方法进行消除，进而提升模型近似估计的准确性；既有结构施工阶段以张拉工艺为主的建造误差上限可通过模型计算结合实测值统计分析综合推定。     

Estimation of torsional-flutter probability in flexible bridges considering randomness in flutter derivatives

Torsional-flutter instability is an aeroelastic phenomenon of interest to the bridge engineer, corresponding to a torsionally unstable vibration regime of the deck driven by wind excitation and appearing beyond a certain critical wind velocity. In this study a method for the derivation of the flutter probability for long-span bridges with bluff decks is proposed.In the first part of this study the deterministic problem is addressed. In contrast with the classical solution method in the frequency domain based on a numerical procedure for assessing the critical wind velocity, a single-mode “closed-form” algorithm for the derivation of the critical velocity was investigated. A polynomial representation of the aeroelastic-loading coefficients (flutter derivatives), necessary for torsional-flutter analysis, was utilized.In the second part an algorithm for estimating the torsional-flutter probability was developed, considering randomness in bridge properties, and flutter derivatives in particular due to their preeminent role in torsional-flutter velocity estimation.Experimental errors in the extraction of flutter derivatives from wind tunnel tests were analyzed. The “closed-form” algorithm, developed in the first part, allowed for a direct numerical solution of the flutter probability in a simple way.The torsional-flutter probability for three simulated bridge models with rectangular closed-box and truss-type girder deck was numerically determined. A set of experimental data, available from the literature, was employed. The simulations enabled the validation of the proposed algorithm.